NFL: Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers Betting Preview and Pick

It’s time for another Thursday Night Football Betting Preview and if you can’t tell, I’m feeling a little under the weather right now and if I screw up my pick, you can guarantee I’ll be blaming it on the cold meds I’m propped up on right now. Getting into the game, it’s the Bears travelling to Green Bay hoping not to catch cold at the Frozen Tundra but a quick look at the trends will tell you that the Bears have been coughing it up at the hallowed ground of Lambeau Field. The main reason for that? Some guy named Aaron Rodgers. Leading the Packers to 7 wins and 6 cashed ATS bets in 8 career home starts against the Bears, A-Rod puts the team on his back against NFC North opponents. In the last 5 years, he’s thrown 30 touchdowns compared to just four interceptions in 15 divisional home games and after a bit of a shaky start, I expect him to break into true form after an excellent game and overtime win against the Bengals.

Green Bay opened as a 7.5-point favorite for Thursday’s contest and while the Bears have looked okay in spurts this season, I can’t see them covering that number away from home. In their only road game so far this year, they were thumped by the Bucs in Tampa by a score of 29-7. The Packers, on the other hand, are 2-0 at home on the year and they’ve thrived as big chalk lately, posting a 14-6 ATS record in their last 20 games as favorites of 7.5 or more points. I know underdogs cleaned up in Week 3 but that shouldn’t scare you away from this number. Green Bay’s rush defense has been just good enough to make me believe that it can hold the dynamic duo of Jordan Howard and Tarik Cohen in check and call me crazy but I don’t see Mike Glennon carving up a pass defense that’s allowed an average of just 183 yards per game through three games.

To put a cap on this I like the Green Bay Packers on Thursday Night and I think they easily cover the spread against a Bad News Bears team that’s 0-6 straight up and 1-5 against the spread in its last six games after a win. For more betting picks for Week 4, check out my Pick 6 column on where I help you beat your bookie with my six favorite bets on the NFL board every week. I think we’re about to give Las Vegas some its own medicine this week guys, let’s cash some wagers.